"The rise in raw material prices is the main driving force behind the recent rise in the price of graphite electrode products." A graphite electrode manufacturer in A shares told reporters that under the background of the country's "carbon neutral" goal and stricter environmental protection policies, the company expects petroleum coke, needle The price of raw materials such as coke will continue to rise, so the possibility of subsequent price increases for graphite electrode products may not be ruled out.
In fact, the rise in the price of graphite electrodes has attracted the attention of the market. Yesterday, affected by the news that the price of graphite electrode products rose, the A-share graphite electrode sector ushered in a rise. In terms of individual stocks, Fangda Carbon rose by 7%, Yicheng Xinneng rose by more than 5%, and Baotailong and Yongdong shares both rose.
This morning, Fangda Carbon continued to attack.
Regarding the follow-up trend of graphite electrodes, some brokerage research reports bluntly stated that the "carbon neutrality" policy is expected to increase the proportion of electric furnace steelmaking, which is good for the overall development of the graphite electrode industry. As one of the main materials for ultra-high power electric arc furnaces, driven by the demand for electric arc furnaces, the demand for large ultra-high power graphite electrodes is expected to further increase.
This round of price increases is mainly driven by cost
The reporter learned in the interview that the graphite electrode market has been operating well recently, and the price is in a rising cycle, mainly due to the continuous upward trend in raw material prices.
"The current price of ultra-high power electrodes is between RMB/ton and RMB/ton, and the price per ton has increased by about 1,000 yuan compared with the beginning of the year. The price of various ordinary power graphite electrode products has increased by about 500 yuan per ton compared with the beginning of the year." Carbon people He told reporters that the recent increase in the price of graphite electrodes is mainly based on the increase in raw material prices. Taking petroleum coke as an example, the price per ton has increased by about 400 yuan compared with the beginning of the year.
The person further stated that in terms of raw material supply and environmental protection policies, the company expects the price of raw materials to rise, so it does not rule out that the price of graphite electrode products will continue to rise.
Some iron and steel industry research institutions also hold the same view. "The price of petroleum coke in the raw material market is still rising. The peak period of refinery maintenance is approaching, and the market supply is gradually decreasing, which is good for the price of low-sulfur coke." The agency also believes that needle coke is affected by low operating capacity and insufficient raw material support. Therefore, prices may remain high. In the short term, the graphite electrode market is still showing a positive trend, with strong cost support. Due to the fear of rising prices in the later period, there is a high probability that the downstream will enter the market and place orders one after another.
The reporter noticed that the price of graphite electrode products soared once in 2017, and the industry boom was once hot. A person who is engaged in sales of carbon materials in North China also gave his own opinion on whether it can reproduce the glory of the year.
"The logic of recent product price increases is different from that in 2017. In 2017, product price increases were mainly affected by supply-side reforms. Small businesses in North China were shut down, and the output of graphite electrodes was halved, resulting in a reduction in supply. In addition, the demand for electric furnace steelmaking continued to grow. At that time The shortage of products is the key." The above-mentioned person said.
Although the price increase logic is different from that in 2017, the person believes that the short-process steelmaking and long-process steelmaking of electric furnaces have a significant effect on reducing carbon emissions. With the gradual implementation of the goal of "carbon neutrality", graphite electrode products, especially ultra-high power products, have broad prospects.
The benefits of 'carbon neutrality' will take time to materialize
For the iron and steel industry, the "carbon neutral" policy is expected to increase the proportion of electric furnace steelmaking, but subject to factors such as raw material supply and raw material prices, the increase in the proportion is not a "one-day effort".
"We have a plan to build a new electric furnace steelmaking project, but it will not be implemented soon." The person in charge of a steel company with tens of millions of tons in the north told reporters that the advantage of electric furnace steelmaking compared with electric furnace steelmaking is that it reduces carbon emissions, which is beneficial to my country's realization of carbon emissions is of great significance. The goal of "carbon neutrality".
Although electric furnace steelmaking has obvious advantages compared with furnace steelmaking in terms of carbon emissions, the crude steel produced by electric furnace steelmaking in my country only accounts for about 10% of the total output, which is lower than the global average of 20% for electric furnace steel. However, the above-mentioned steel enterprises also stated that in terms of raw material scrap steel required for blast furnace steelmaking, my country has uneven quality and limited output, which also restricts the development of electric furnace steelmaking to a certain extent. "What we know is that my country's annual output of steel scrap is less than 200 million tons, which is far behind the annual output of 1 billion tons of steel, and electric furnaces are difficult to use on a large scale."
Indeed. A person close to Fangda Carbon told the reporter that although "carbon neutrality" has great expectations for increasing the proportion of electric furnace steelmaking and is of great significance for driving the development of graphite electrodes, judging from the current order situation of the company, there is a possibility that it will be the same as the end of 2020. Little improvement. The change is large, and the downstream electric furnace steel has a general demand for graphite electrodes.
"Even if the electric furnace replaces the blast furnace, it will take a process, and the proportion cannot be increased quickly." Regarding the current overall demand situation, the above-mentioned person further believes that, as the person from the steel company said, the insufficient supply of scrap steel and other materials required for electric furnace steelmaking is also the main reason . reason. "The reason why electric furnace steel did not develop so fast in the past was because our scrap steel reserves were not enough. In the future, with the increase of scrap steel production, the proportion of electric furnace steel may increase."
The brokerage research report believes that the carbon emission ratio of electric furnace steelmaking and blast furnace steelmaking per ton is at 0.5:1.9. Graphite electrodes are the main raw materials for electric arc furnaces. "Carbon neutrality" is affirmative. The development of the graphite electrode industry is beneficial.
"The development of electric furnace steel must be the general trend. For the graphite electrode industry, there are real benefits, but at present, specific policy support is still needed." A securities researcher said.